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ISSN : 1026-3098
e-ISSN : 2345-3605
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Publication Information : Volume 22 - Number 2
Type : Research Note
Topics of Paper : Transaction on Civil Engineering
English Title : An Artificial Statistical Method to Estimate Seismicity Parameter from Incomplete Earthquake Catalogs, a Case Study in Metropolitan Tehran, Iran
English Abstract : Uncertainties in earthquake catalogs, earthquake recurrence parameters, and in the variation of ground motion parameters are often considered in the evaluation of seismic hazard analysis. The purpose of this study is to develop an artificial statistical procedure based on Bayes’ formulation and weighted bootstrap sampling to estimate seismicity parameter (b-value of the Gutenberg-Richter law) from both historical and instrumental data in a given region. The procedure allows for uncertainty in the period of completeness, and assigns different weights to historical seismicity as compared to instrumental seismicity. Variation of seismicity within seismic sources is allowed with this procedure. This variation generalizes the condition of spatially homogeneous seismicity within seismic sources and permits accurate representation of historical seismicity. As a case study, the earthquake catalog of the greater Tehran, Iran is considered to estimate seismicity parameters as well as probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) using the proposed procedure, and then the results are compared with those obtained from a conventional PSHA method. This comparison confirms the applicability of the procedure used in this study.
English Keywords : Completeness region; Missing earthquakes; Stochastic synthetic seismic catalog; b-value; Bootstrap sampling
Refrences :
Number Of Pages :
From 400 to 409


Authors :
The AuthorAuthor SequenceOrganizationOrganization ( english )AffiliationEmailEducation
Dr. Azad Yazdani
(Author)
1Department of Civil Engineering, University of Kurdistan, Sanandaj, P.O. Box 416, Iran Associate Professor  
Dr. Ahmad Nicknam 2School of Civil Engineering, Iran University of Science & Technology, P.O.Box 16765-163, Tehran, Iran Assistant Professor  
Dr. Mostafa Khanzadi 3School of Civil Engineering, Iran University of Science & Technology, P.O.Box 16765-163, Tehran, Iran Assistant Professor  
Sasan Motaghed 4School of Civil Engineering, Iran University of Science & Technology, P.O.Box 16765-163, Tehran, Iran    
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